I see Jim Kunstler is out with his annual forecast. For the record, I think most of his predictions are terrible (expept for drought). Of course, if you make the same prediction every year (gold up, Dow 4,000, major earthquake), eventually you are going to be right. What surprises me, though, is why he’s not taking a victory lap of sorts. Rather than make predictions, why not just point out that in the past year:
Cities grew faster than suburbs for the first time in a hundred years:
Americans are driving less, and the trend is significantly down.
Malls are being abandoned from coast to coast and new construction is down.
Graduate school students are dropping out and taking up farming.
Gas is very expensive, even in a depressed economy.
New housing starts are down indicating a floundering suburbia.
There have been furtive attempts to get high speed rail going.
The average age of cars on the road hit an all-time high.
The Eurozone is still a basket case.
Doctors are now concerned about viruses being spread to more temperate regions by global warming.
At least some global trade is reverting to sail.
Municipal bankruptcies are endemic.
Americans are increasingly subscribing to a demon-haunted world of a young earth created by God from scratch, and a medieval world view of social relations.
So instead of making another round of dire predictions, maybe he should take a little credit for the small claims that he has made in the past that seem to be starting to play out. I know I would. Still no pirates showing up on the West Coast, though.