Before we move on to predictions for the new year, it's worth noting just how many of the predictions that the peak oil community has made over the years are coming true even as we speak. In fact, I would go as far as to say that it's the one group that's been most consistently right about the world we're living in.
Americans driving less? Check.
High energy prices constraining economic activity? Check.
Climate change derived superstorms devastating entire regions? Check.
Weird weather all over the world? Check.
Resource scarcity? Check.
Agricultural output peaking? Check.
Wildfires and drought crippling the Western United States? Check.
Tropical diseases returning to first world countries and spreading north? Check.
The global economy in shambles and attempts to restart economic growth around the world failing? Check
Debt repayments destroying national economies? Check
Unemployment and underemployment rising? Check
Food riots? Check.
Dust bowls and expanding deserts? Check.
Gasoline riots? Check.
Rise of right-wing populism and hostility to immigrants around the world? Check.
Mainstream economists seriously discussing the end of growth? Check.
People having less children and household formation down? Check.
Sail transport making a comeback? Check.
Economies turning to increasingly desperate measures such as tight oil, shale oil, fracking, horizontal drilling, deep offshore drilling and tar sands? Definitely yes.
What is going to take for the mainstream media, the political class, pundits, economists and others to admit that the Peak Oil community called it, and their predictions about the fate of humanity are squaring pretty tightly with events? How much longer can they sweep stuff under the rug and pretend that we're going to have business as usual?